Is the insurance bet +EV? Probability analysis
| Scenario | Insurance EV | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Standard (no count) | -7.69% | -EV |
| Positive count (TC +3+) | Depends | Maybe |
| 10-cards > 33% | +EV if 10s > 33% | +EV |
When the dealer shows an Ace, you're offered an insurance bet. It's a side bet on whether the dealer has blackjack (a 10-value card face down).
In a 6-deck shoe, the remaining 10-card ratio is 30.77% (16×6÷(52×6)). Insurance pays 2:1, so the breakeven point is 33.33%. This means insurance typically has about -7.69% expected value.
Insurance is only +EV when the remaining 10-card ratio exceeds 33.33%. This can be determined through card counting. At a true count of +3 or higher, insurance often becomes favorable.